On Luck, Quantification, and Intuition: Lessons from Poker

Updated: October 29, 2018

It’s been awhile since I shared a TED Talk in this blog. So I hope you’ll enjoy this one on decision-making, which was delivered by poker champion, Liv Boeree.

It’s a short but insightful talk about three things: luck, quantification, and intuition. Watch it below, and then continue reading my thoughts after the video.

Note: If you can’t see the video, then you can watch it on YouTube here.


Indeed, there’s always an element of luck with everything we do. And it’s important to realize how much of it contributed to our success.

Not only will this keep us grounded in humility, but it can also help in determining which failures were simply a result of bad luck and we shouldn’t give up.


I especially like her insight on this because I’ve always believed that you cannot hit a target you can’t see.

This means if you don’t have a concrete and measurable goal, then it’ll be hard for you to know which strategies work better than others at helping you reach that objective.


Lastly, her point on intuition is something that a lot of people miss. We can’t always follow our “gut feel” especially on things that we don’t know much about.

I agree, as I’ve proven from my own life, that the only time you should trust your intuition is when you’re deciding on something that you already have a lot of experience in.

So how about you? What are your thoughts on the video? Did you like it? What realizations did you have while watching? I hope you can share them below in the comments section and let’s discuss.

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